Think climate change just affects ice caps and polar bears?
Think again.
Imagine you are responsible for providing one of the most essential resources for almost every human being on the planet. In fact, the crop you produce is consumed in one way or another by the vast majority of the population.1
Any guesses?
Maize, or corn, is the world’s largest crop produced by mass, used for feeding livestock, making sweeteners, grinding into flour and – of course – popcorn.1 In fact, only three plants (maize, wheat and rice) account for over 60% of calories and protein eaten around the world.2 Maize is an economically vital crop too, not only feeding local citizens, but also contributing massively to national income through exportation.
As the planet’s population grows, scientists predict that wheat and maize production must increase by over 15% to meet the needs of humanity.2 Yet farmers are already in a battle against the changing weather patterns and pest outbreaks caused by climate change.3 So we face a dilemma – how can we grow more food, while farming conditions become more unstable?
Teaming up to fasten the maize belt
To investigate potential solutions to this joint problem, a team from Chinese and Australian agricultural research groups came together to simulate how climate change may affect the yield of the Chinese maize belt. The maize belt massive area spanning across the East of the country, accounting for 15% of all maize grown on the planet!2
Using a computer programme, the researchers predicted how maize crops would react to varying temperatures, levels of rainfall and sunlight intensity – all things which are predicted to change with global warming. They also factored in the different soil types found across the maize belt, to investigate whether exactly what the crop was grown in could affect its fate in a warming planet.
What did they find?
The simulations provided some surprising results. Changes in sunlight intensity and rainfall had little to no effect on the crop yield – however higher temperatures caused a significant drop in the amount of maize available to be harvested.
Warmer weather shortens the growth cycle of maize, an important stage in the life cycle which directly impacts how much food can be produced from the plant. As climate models predict that temperatures could rise to an average of 3 ℃ above pre-industrial levels by 2100,4 the knock-on effects on the livelihoods of farmers as well as consumers are likely to be drastic.
However, the research also provided some hopeful findings. Crops planted in sandy, silty soils – rather than clay-based soils – were able to withstand higher temperatures. Why? These soils retain more water, enabling crops to access water and continue growing even on hot days – thereby combatting the effects of rising temperatures. This means that where possible, farmers can modify their soil or rotate crops to soils which better support them during harsh conditions – helping to mitigate the impacts of climate change on one of the world’s most important food sources.
How to Find Another Way:
Climate change is not just something which will happen in the future – the effects are already here and are impacting ecosystems and people globally. You may not have to worry about your crop yields, but you can still do things to fight climate change in your own area! For example, planting drought-resistant trees to provide shade and shelter for other plants, being mindful of water use to reduce the impact of drought, and making a wildlife pond to sustain wildlife which likes life a bit wetter, are all great ways to help.
Article written by Fin Mills
References:
Primary Paper: Chen, F. et al. 2024. Soil buffering capacity enhances maize yield resilience amidst climate perturbations. Agricultural Systems, 215(C). https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agsy.2024.103870
- Awika, J.M., 2011. Major cereal grains production and use around the world. In Advances in cereal science: implications to food processing and health promotion (pp. 1-13). American Chemical Society. https://doi.org/10.1021/bk-2011-1089.ch001
- Ray DK, Mueller ND, West PC, Foley JA (2013) Yield Trends Are Insufficient to Double Global Crop Production by 2050. PLoS ONE 8(6): e66428. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0066428
- Day, R., et al. 2017. Fall armyworm: impacts and implications for Africa. Outlooks on pest management, 28(5), pp.196-201. https://doi.org/10.1564/v28_oct_02
- Rahmstorf, S., 2024. Climate and Weather at 3 Degrees More: Earth as We Don’t (Want to) Know It. In 3 Degrees More: The Impending Hot Season and How Nature Can Help Us Prevent It (pp. 3-17). Cham: Springer Nature Switzerland. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-58144-1_1
