CLIMATE CHANGE AND ALPINE BIRDS
Mountain ranges in the Middle East are not only breathtaking in their landscapes but incredibly species-rich, hosting many unique bird species found nowhere else on Earth. But as the climate gets warmer, is their survival melting away?
To answer this question, a team of scientists used computer simulations to predict how various birds might fare under different climate scenarios. Their study looked at how mountain habitats might change in coming years and the effectiveness of existing protected areas in the context of these changes. What their results suggest is that if we act now by better protecting their habitats, we can keep the thin ice these birds are currently standing on from breaking.
THE BIODIVERISTY OF MIDDLE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
When you think of an alpine mountain, the first image that might come to mind is a barren, frozen landscape. But this could not be further from the truth. In fact, alpine regions are teeming with life if you know where to look! If you look closely among the snow-covered branches or rocky outcrops, you might spot unique bird species such as the Caucasian grouse or the Syrian woodpecker. Perhaps a wild goat grazes on the rugged slopes, or a rare, high-altitude mammal scurries among the rocks. Regardless of what you find, you can be certain that this ecosystem is full of life, much of which cannot be found anywhere else in the world1.
This is what we call endemism, a phenomenon where species exist only in a specific geographic area and nowhere else in the world. Alpine ecosystems, especially those in the Middle East, are hotspots of endemism, meaning many of their species are uniquely adapted to their environments and can’t be found elsewhere. In the case of the Middle East’s mountain ranges, the high degree of endemism makes these ecosystems particularly susceptible to climate change. As temperatures rise and habitats shrink, these species have fewer places to thrive, and without the ability to migrate to new habitats, many face the very real risk of extinction.
Examples of middle eastern wildlife; grouse (left), Syrian Woodpecker (centre), mountain goat (right). Photos by Canva.
MODELING THE FUTURE OF ALPINE BIRD HABITATS
So how can we protect the unique alpine birds of this region? To answer this question, a team of scientists focused on five major mountain ranges (Alborz to Kopet Dagh, Caucasus to Pontic, Levant to Taurus, Sarawat to Hijaz and Zagros to Central Iran) and used a model to map how the distribution of 38 bird species might change under different climate change scenarios. In many ways, this process is like a high-stakes game of chess. Just as a chess player anticipates their opponent’s moves once they understand the strategy, the researchers were able to predict where these bird species might end up, but instead of guessing, they relied on precise mathematical models. These models, known as species distribution models (SDMs), are commonly used in conservation science2. The models help scientists understand how large a species’ range needs to be in order to avoid extinction, providing crucial information for conservation strategies.
The scientists used five study areas, each which its between two middle-eastern mountain ranges. These study areas are pictured above, colour coded to show which to mountain ranges the study areas are between (map created using google maps).
WHERE ARE THE SAFE HAVENS FOR ALPINE BIRDS?
Based on the results from these models, the researchers identified key areas that could serve as homes for multiple species. These areas include in-situ refugia, which are habitats that currently provide shelter and resources for bird species in their natural environment, and ex-situ refugia, which are locations that, although not suitable now, will become viable as climate conditions change, offering future refuge for species. Finally, the study compared these identified refuges with existing protected areas to assess how effectively alpine birds are being conserved within current conservation frameworks.
Alpine mountains (photo by Canva)
What they found will not warm your heart, but will show you how we are literally warming theirs. As temperatures rise, in fact, the quality of these birds’ habitats will decrease by more than 35% by 2050, and around 60% by 2070. Throughout this period, alpine birds will have to keep moving up the mountain if they don’t want to fall down the extinction path. Meanwhile, all mountains in the Middle East will experience habitat loss, with Levant to Taurus, Zagros to Central Iran and Alborz to Kopet–Dagh being the most affected. On the bright side, around 12% of the identified refugia are already protected as part of existing protected areas, but more will have to be done to increase this percentage.
HOW TO FIND ANOTHER WAY:
First, we need to establish new protected areas in regions where refugia have been identified, ensuring that these species have safe habitats to thrive. Simultaneously, we must rethink how we use these mountain environments, reducing practices like illegal logging, mining, and unregulated tourism that harm fragile ecosystems.
However, these efforts alone won’t be enough. If global temperatures rise by more than 2°C, the damage to ecosystems, like those in the Middle East, could be irreversible3-4. Many governments around the world have made a pledge to become carbon-neutral by 2050, but the targets set to achieve this goal are still to be met 5.
On an individual level, we can drive change by supporting these policies—advocating for cleaner energy solutions and sustainable land management. Simple actions like reducing our carbon footprint through public transport, eating more plant-based foods, and supporting sustainable businesses can have a collective impact. Additionally, individuals can push for greater environmental accountability from governments and corporations, urging them to honour their climate pledges and invest in nature conservation.
Ultimately, redirecting investments away from fossil fuels and war toward clean energy and conservation initiatives is key. Every step counts, and by aligning both institutional reforms and personal actions, we can protect the Middle East’s unique alpine biodiversity for generations to come.
Article written by Maria Giulia Checchi
Primary paper:
Ahmadi, M. et al. (2024) ‘Protecting alpine biodiversity in the Middle East from climate change: Implications for high‐elevation birds’
Other references:
- Noroozi, J. et al. (2018) ‘Hotspots within a global biodiversity hotspot – areas of endemism are associated with high mountain ranges’
- Elith, J. and Leathwick, J.R. (2009) ‘Species distribution models: Ecological explanation and prediction across space and Time’
- Roach R. et al. (2007) Two Degrees, One Chance: The urgent need to curb global warming. Oxfam.
- Mountain Research Initiative EDW Working Group. (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world.
- Deutch, J. (2020) ‘Is net zero carbon 2050 possible
